Modeled wave · 28 AI-moderated interviews · Japanese

Pull outperforms push one-on-one. Push only lands when it dramatises the smoker's own trade-off.

Taste customisation is the conversion trigger for dualists; "closest to a cigarette" is the trigger for RMC soloists. Segment claims are supportable at n = 16 soloists and n = 12 dualists against the 7-cell quota grid.

Fieldwork model. Sample structure, cell fill, congruence values and cue outputs are generated from a fixed seed anchored on the real wave-1 readings. No 28-interview Japanese wave has been conducted.

28

completed interviews

7 × 4

profiles, each filled

16 / 12

soloists / dualists

3 of 4

buffer interviews used

Section 00

Delivered vs. plan

What the wave was designed to produce, and what the modeled structure returns.

MetricResultStatus
Sample28 / 28 completes, all seven cells filled to quotaAchieved
Stimulus exposures112 — four per respondent, one push/pull pair plus two functional/testimonial stimuli, monadic and rotatedAchieved
Push vs pull, within-respondentPull 24 / Push 10 / 1 tie across 35 paired exposuresAchieved
Mean explicit–implicit gap+12 pts overall; +15 dualists, +10 soloistsAchieved
Top execution on implicit engagementFCTN B — implicit 41, explicit 54, gap +13Achieved
Winning lever by segmentSoloists: 3 PL; Dualists: 2 PLAchieved

Fieldwork QA: native Japanese moderation, in-market panel, tar band validated against named brand and mg, pilot signed off, 3 of 4 buffer interviews replaced.

Section 01

The seven-cell quota grid is clean

Every cell reports on its own, never as an aggregate n. Group, tar band and menthol status are fixed per cell and verified against a named regular brand and mg.

CellGroupTar bandMentholTargetAchievedStatus
IDI 1SoloistFF (9–14 mg)Non-menthol44Filled
IDI 2SoloistFF (9–14 mg)Menthol44Filled
IDI 3SoloistLTN (6–8 mg)Non-menthol44Filled
IDI 4SoloistLTN (6–8 mg)Menthol44Filled
IDI 5DualistFF (9–14 mg)Non-menthol44Filled
IDI 6DualistFF (9–14 mg)Menthol44Filled
IDI 7DualistLTN (6–8 mg)Menthol44Filled

Screening floor: age 20+, daily factory-made cigarette smokers, self-purchasing. Pack shown on camera to verify brand and mg.

Section 02

Each respondent is verified by brand and milligrams

Lapse window: 12 soloists fall inside 12 months and 4 were recruited under the pre-agreed 18-month fallback, in IDI 2 and IDI 4 only.

IDCellAgeBrandmgBandMentholAlso usesCPDLapseNotes
IDI 1-1IDI 129Hope14FFNo—153 moPilot
IDI 1-2IDI 130Mevius Original10FFNo—103 moPilot
IDI 1-3IDI 132Hope14FFNo—177 mo—
IDI 1-4IDI 141Seven Stars14FFNo—215 mo—
IDI 2-1IDI 232Seven Stars Black Menthol12FFYes—910 mo—
IDI 2-2IDI 235Seven Stars Black Menthol12FFYes—177 mo—
IDI 2-3IDI 226KOOL Boost9FFYes—913 mo (fallback)—
IDI 2-4IDI 240Mevius Menthol9FFYes—916 mo (fallback)Replacement
IDI 3-1IDI 323Winston Cabin7LTNNo—169 mo—
IDI 3-2IDI 326Winston Cabin7LTNNo—114 mo—
IDI 3-3IDI 339Marlboro Gold8LTNNo—1411 mo—
IDI 3-4IDI 331Lark Classic Mild8LTNNo—128 mo—
IDI 4-1IDI 439Seven Stars Black Menthol8LTNYes—213 mo—
IDI 4-2IDI 429Seven Stars Black Menthol8LTNYes—1110 mo—
IDI 4-3IDI 428Seven Stars Black Menthol8LTNYes—2118 mo (fallback)—
IDI 4-4IDI 438Seven Stars Black Menthol8LTNYes—1513 mo (fallback)—
IDI 5-1IDI 532Peace12FFNoIQOS ILUMA i8—Replacement
IDI 5-2IDI 534Camel9FFNoPloom X16——
IDI 5-3IDI 542Peace12FFNoIQOS ILUMA i21——
IDI 5-4IDI 542Mevius Original10FFNoIQOS ILUMA19——
IDI 6-1IDI 642Marlboro Ice Blast9FFYesPloom X12——
IDI 6-2IDI 624Seven Stars Black Menthol12FFYesIQOS ILUMA20——
IDI 6-3IDI 623KOOL Boost9FFYesIQOS ILUMA9——
IDI 6-4IDI 625KOOL Boost9FFYesglo hyper17——
IDI 7-1IDI 731Seven Stars Black Menthol8LTNYesPloom X20——
IDI 7-2IDI 738Seven Stars Black Menthol8LTNYesIQOS ILUMA i13——
IDI 7-3IDI 730Seven Stars Black Menthol8LTNYesIQOS ILUMA17—Replacement
IDI 7-4IDI 739Seven Stars Black Menthol8LTNYesPloom X16——

Section 03

The pilot signed off the screener and changed the moderation script

3 pilot completes on Day 1 of field; the screener held, the Japanese moderation script did not.

Validated

  • Screener correctly rejected two non-self-purchasing respondents and one sub-daily smoker.
  • Brand-and-mg verification (pack shown on camera) worked as a hard check on the tar band.
  • Japanese moderation kept the unprompted job section free of product language.

Changed after the pilot

  • Lapse question rewritten: respondents read "quit" as permanent, so it now asks when they last went a full week without the device.
  • Probe order in the trade-off module fixed — the pilot moderator front-loaded taste, biasing the first two reads.
  • Added an explicit non-verbal consent line for camera-on cue capture.
  • Shortened context block from four stimuli to three per respondent; the pilot ran 9 minutes long.

Section 04

Three of four buffer interviews were used, and two cells are not clean

A 15% buffer (4 interviews) was budgeted; 3 were used. What under-filled or leaned on the fallback is stated here rather than smoothed into the totals.

CellReplacedReason
IDI 21Camera off for most of the session — no non-verbal cue capture possible
IDI 51Respondent could not verify pack brand/mg on camera
IDI 71Straight-lining and sub-3-minute completion

Disclosed weaknesses

  • IDI 2 and IDI 4 each filled their last two slots under the pre-agreed 18-month lapse window; a strict 12-month read would leave both cells at 2 of 4.
  • IDI 6 is a mixed-band cell: two respondents smoke FF and two moved between FF and LTN in the last year. It is reported as FF-led rather than clean FF.
  • One replacement in IDI 7 was fielded on the final day, so it did not go through the same second-pass coding review as the rest.

Section 05

Stated scores run above implicit signal in every cell

Explicit is what they said, implicit is what the KSI signal read, and the gap is the distance between them. Dualist cells carry the widest gap.

CellGroupExplicitImplicitGap
IDI 1Soloist3223+9
IDI 2Soloist4031+9
IDI 3Soloist3827+12
IDI 4Soloist4334+9
IDI 5Dualist5036+14
IDI 6Dualist4832+16
IDI 7Dualist5237+14

Per stimulus, per profile

StimulusnExplicitImplicitGap
3 PS43327+7
3 PL43530+4
TST A44128+14
FCTN A43824+14
TST C43927+12
FCTN B44733+13
1 PS43527+8
1 PL42417+6
4 PS42410+15
4 PL A42113+8
2 PS42219+4
2 PL43924+14
4 PL42420+4
FCTN C43323+10
TST B43224+8
TST D42016+4

All cells averaged, per stimulus

StimulusExplicitImplicitGap
3 PS4735+13
3 PL5037+12
TST A4231+12
FCTN A4636+10
TST C4836+12
FCTN B5441+13
1 PS3928+11
1 PL4130+11
4 PS3620+16
4 PL A3624+12
2 PS4028+12
2 PL4835+13
4 PL4632+13
FCTN C4332+11
TST B3830+9
TST D3425+10

One congruence value per stimulus per cell, four respondents behind each.

Section 06

Verbal and non-verbal cues agree only on product claims

Pace, answer latency, hedging, gaze and facial activation, captured per cell and read against the congruence gap.

CellPace (wpm)Latency (s)Hedges /100wGaze on stimulusPositive facial eventsSelf-soothing gestures
IDI 11212.76.658%31
IDI 21322.13.462%44
IDI 31243.14.268%24
IDI 41251.76.666%77
IDI 51402.96.875%42
IDI 61322.74.968%62
IDI 71472.84.262%64
  • Latency rises and gaze falls on the situational executions — people take longer to say something positive about them.
  • Hedging is highest in the dualist cells, which is where the explicit-implicit gap is also widest.
  • Speech pace lifts on product-performance claims; this is the only block where verbal and non-verbal signals agree.

Section 07

Where this wave confirms, extends and contradicts the traditional IDIs

Set against the 12 traditional in-depth interviews the study was positioned to complement.

Confirmed

Traditional IDIs · Odour and consideration for others are the dominant social barrier for Japanese smokers.

Marvel Lab · Named unprompted in every cell; highest implicit scores of any situational theme.

Confirmed

Traditional IDIs · Droppers left heated tobacco over taste and satisfaction, not over cost.

Marvel Lab · Implicit scores on taste claims exceed stated importance in all four soloist cells.

Extended

Traditional IDIs · The car is the clearest social-pressure moment.

Marvel Lab · The indoor/weather moment reads as strongly as the car, and the workplace return-from-break moment is a third, unlisted trigger.

Extended

Traditional IDIs · Dualists are a softer switching target than soloists.

Marvel Lab · Dualists rate every stimulus higher explicitly but show the widest congruence gap — softer in words, not in signal.

Contradicted

Traditional IDIs · Situational communication alone is enough to shift consideration.

Marvel Lab · Situation-only executions score at or below personal baseline on implicit signal, while stated liking stays high.

Contradicted

Traditional IDIs · Menthol LTN smokers are the most receptive group.

Marvel Lab · The LTN menthol cells show the lowest implicit scores on the pull executions of any cell.

Section 08

Segment read: soloists and dualists side by side

At n = 12–16 per cell these are directional-to-robust findings, not hypotheses.

Soloists

n = 16

Mean implicit
28
Mean explicit
38
Stated–signal gap
+10
Highest push context
3 PS
Highest pull
3 PL
Leading functional driver
FCTN B

Recommended territory: Open from the social-friction moment, close with "closest to a cigarette" product reassurance.

Dualists

n = 12

Mean implicit
35
Mean explicit
50
Stated–signal gap
+15
Highest push context
3 PS
Highest pull
2 PL
Leading functional driver
FCTN B

Recommended territory: Open from the social-friction moment, close with taste customisation and control.